Reconsider AUKUS say former Labor foreign ministers

“I think at the very least there’s got to be a serious discussion in Canberra about whether we want a sovereign submarine capacity and whether we’ve got to accept that under intense competition with China, whether America in the 2030s can conceivably adhere to the grand promise.

“We’ve got to discuss the prospect that the decision will be made by people not yet in power in America.”

Gareth Evans, the foreign minister from 1988 to 1996 under prime ministers Bob Hawke and Paul Keating, said the new administration was likely to voice support for AUKUS until practical pressures forced a new approach.

“Trump is transactional and will start like the Biden administration – seeing this as a good deal for the US financially and because the boats will be for all practical purposes US assets,” said Evans.

“But that will last only until it becomes apparent, probably in the next year or two, that the US shipyards are not meeting their own Virginia replacement targets.”

The AUKUS pact says the first vessel in a new design, known as the SSN-AUKUS, will be completed at an Australian shipyard in the early 2040s.

As an interim step, the government assumes US and UK submarines will start operating on rotation from HMAS Stirling, near Perth, from 2027, easing the burden on Australia’s ageing Collins-class vessels.

Australia will also pay $4.7 billion to US companies to help fund the technologies – such as nuclear propulsion – needed for the new fleet.

Former attorney-general George Brandis, who was Australian high commissioner to the UK when the AUKUS pact was struck, said he believed the agreement was not under threat from Trump.

Former prime minister Scott Morrison, who struck the AUKUS alliance with the US and UK in 2021, said he was “quite confident” the Trump administration would support the agreement.

“It is true that President Trump has a reputation for being transactional, but that doesn’t mean he likes bad deals. He likes good deals. AUKUS is a good deal,” Morrison told Sky News on Wednesday.

“Australia carries its weight in that deal, you won’t find another defence agreement anywhere in the world where your ally is actually paying to support the industrial base in your own country, in the United States.”

Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull said he did not think Australia would ever get the Virginia-class submarines promised under AUKUS, but he said this would be due to constraints on the US Navy and not the personal views of Trump as president.

“The bottom line is the American Navy is at least 17 Virginia-class submarines short of what they believe they need,” Turnbull told ABC Radio National on Thursday morning.

“The legislation which authorises America to sell Virginia-class submarines to Australia says that before doing so, the president has to certify that the US Navy’s underwater capabilities would not be diminished by the sale.

“In other words, that they’re surplus to the US Navy’s requirements. Now, I don’t see how an American president could do that.”

Rudd described Trump as “nuts” and a “traitor to the West” because of his stance on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but the former prime minister made the remarks as a private citizen, before he was named as the ambassador in December 2022.

Coalition foreign affairs spokesman Simon Birmingham signalled on Wednesday morning that the government should reconsider Rudd’s appointment if he became a liability with the new administration.

“Obviously, everybody’s aware of what was said in the past that’s been publicised, but Kevin Rudd’s done a good job while he’s been in Washington,” Birmingham told the Nine Network.

“Now, the job is bigger than any one person or Anthony Albanese’s loyalties to any one person, so if he can’t do the job, he can’t get through the door and have the influence we need, then, of course, somebody else should take that on.

“But we wish him nothing but success, because we want to see Australia’s best interests protected at all times.”

Wong backed Rudd on Thursday morning.