What are swing states? Why is everyone talking about them?

November 6, 2024 journo

Republican Donald Trump seems likely to win the US presidential election, after winning swing states North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania.

While there are 50 states in the country, there are seven states everyone cares about. Why do these states have such an outsized importance in the result?

Here’s a quick guide to get yourself up to speed.

What are the seven key swing states?

Arizona
Georgia
Michigan
Nevada
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

What are the results of the swing states so far?

What does ‘swing state’ mean?

It’s a state where there’s no overwhelming preference for Republicans or Democrats.

There are some states that are usually always won by the same party — called safe seats.

A Republican candidate has won the vote in Texas in every presidential election since 1980.

On the flipside, a Democratic candidate has won the vote in California in every presidential election since 1992.

But voters in swing states are less predictable.

You might also hear swing states being described as “battleground states” or “purple states”.

Why do these swing states matter so much?

Because a candidate can’t win the election without winning at least some swing states.

In the US, a president is decided based on how many electoral college votes a candidate gets.

There are 538 votes up for grabs throughout the entire country.

And these votes are cast by the states.

How many electoral college votes does each state get?

The 538 electoral college votes aren’t divided up equally between each state — some get more than others.

For example, Florida has 30 votes while Alaska only has three.

Another rule in the US election system is that a state can only give its electoral college votes to one candidate (except for Nebraska and Maine, which have different rules).

So Florida couldn’t give 18 votes to one candidate and 12 to another — it has to give all 30 of its votes to the candidate who the majority of voters in that state picked for president.

This rule is why some states are more important to win than others.

How many electoral college votes do the swing states have?

All up, there are 93 electoral college votes up for grabs in the seven key swing states.

Here’s a breakdown of how many electoral college votes each of those states get:

Arizona: 11
Georgia: 16
Michigan: 15
Nevada: 6
North Carolina: 16
Pennsylvania: 19
Wisconsin: 10

When will we know the swing state results?

Arizona: Counting could take days
Georgia: Won by Trump
Michigan: Counting is expected to stretch past Wednesday afternoon
Nevada: Counting could take days
North Carolina: Won by Trump
Pennsylvania: Won by Trump
Wisconsin: Counting is expected to stretch past Wednesday afternoon

How the ABC reports US election results

The USA has a decentralised election system, with thousands of local county governments tabulating and reporting results.

This is very different to Australia’s independent electoral commission.

ABC News relies on the Associated Press (AP) for all vote count data and race calls.

As a general rule, the ABC does not project winners in foreign elections.

AP has been compiling and tabulating election results since 1848.

This election, AP will have a network of about 4,000 reporters across the country collecting results data, plus nearly 1,000 reporters in its vote entry centre.

The mass decentralisation in elections administration means calling the winners in US races requires significant local expertise in counting procedures, voting history, and exit polling.

The ABC is using calls from AP as it has a track record of accuracy and caution in calling elections.

You can read more information about how the Associated Press collates result data and makes race calls here.

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