Albanese and Dutton both in the race to learn from Trump

November 8, 2024 journo

Australian political insiders can all see the lessons from Donald Trump’s powerful victory in America this week – and they are racing to use them against each other.

Labor and the Coalition both know the presidential election turned on the grievances across America about the cost of living and migration – far more than the message from US Vice President Kamala Harris about saving democracy.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is right to see this as good news for his plan to harness the same discontent in Australia at a time when prices are up, wages are down in real terms and interest rates are still too high.

Peter Dutton (right) and Anthony Albanese. Australian elections are won in the centre, not at the extremes.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

The big question Trump asked voters – Are you better off than you were four years ago? – can be just as powerful for Dutton at Australia’s election next year.

“It’s a tough time for incumbents,” one senior Liberal source says. “Where people have lived through a period of high inflation, there’s a good chance they’ll blame the government. And in this country, they would be right to blame the government.”

But Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is preparing to act on the same lessons. And senior Labor people see the Harris campaign as a template for what not to do.

First, the Labor campaign will focus on the economy rather than character and culture, the big themes in the Harris campaign.

Second, the Labor team is awake to the fact the Democrats did not convince voters they had a solution to the cost of living for the next four years. The Australian campaign will be shaped by the “forward offer” for voters, not arguments over the past.

The third lesson is to be very careful about applying American outcomes to Australian elections. It is true the Republicans won territory from the Democrats, but most US locations use first-past-the-post voting and do not allocate preferences the way Australian voters do. In Dearborn, Michigan, for instance, 22 per cent of voters backed the Greens, so the Republicans won. (The city has a high Arab American population.) That would lead to a very different result in Australia, where the votes for the Greens would largely flow to Labor on preferences.

Other factors in Australia also make a huge difference – such as compulsory voting and a national electoral commission.

That means Australian elections are won in the centre, not at the extremes. The MAGA cap is a dunce’s hat for anyone who thinks it has special power at an Australian ballot box.

Albanese signalled his attack plan in parliament on Thursday when he listed how he is trying to help with the cost of living: subsidies for energy bills, spending on housing, free TAFE courses, cheaper medicines with 60-day prescriptions and workplace laws to increase wages. The key point was that Dutton opposed each one.

“That gives you a clear picture of where we’ll go,” a senior Labor source says. “And we’ll do it when we’re ready, not just in response to the US election.” There will be a retail campaign about the practical measures Dutton tried to block.

The government is also beginning to outline the forward offer for the next three years, starting with last weekend’s news about a 20 per cent cut in student debt. This will be made law only if Labor is returned to power. New measures will follow. Energy bill relief is an obvious option.

Dutton is also moving to offer solid policies to lower the cost of living, although he is taking longer to get there.

Labor and the Coalition can both see the biggest lesson from Trump’s victory: do not be distracted from the cost of living.