Why two rumoured appointments to Trump’s inner circle sends one big message to China

With the apparent appointment of two of America’s most hawkish Republicans, president-elect Donald Trump looks to be setting the stage for a confrontational relationship with China.

Trump, who handily won a second, non-consecutive term in the White House last week, is beginning to assemble his team before being sworn into office in January.

Top of his foreign policy’s teams agenda will be America’s complicated relationship with China.

While Trump has threatened China, a major US trading partner with a 60 per cent tariff, he has also referred to the country’s president, Xi Jinping, as a “brilliant guy” who “controls 1.4 billion people with an iron fist”.

So who’s been appointed to do what?

Trump plans to appoint Florida senator Marco Rubio as his secretary of state, according to The New York Times and CNN.

At the same time, the president-elect has asked congressman Michael Waltz, a retired Army National Guard officer and war veteran also from Florida, to be his national security advisor, according to the Associated Press.

The secretary of state serves as America’s number one diplomat.

From 2023 to 2024, Joe Biden’s secretary of state Antony Blinken visited China twice in less than a year, and has been to Israel more than half a dozen times since October 7.

A similar travel itinerary, at least to China, will be a challenge for Senator Rubio, given he’s been sanctioned by Beijing — but more on that later.

The national security advisor is similarly influential.

For those who benefit from a West Wing reference, it’s Jed Bartlett’s deputy national security advisor Kate Harper who advises him on the Middle East early in season six.

“[The National Security Advisor] heads the National Security Council, which is the body of executives and officials who advise the president on national security foreign policy,” says Lyle Morris, from the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.

“So him, alongside the secretary of state and secretary of defence, are arguably the three most influential advisors to the president, but of those three, I think [the national security advisor is] probably the most influential.

“He has the president’s ear on all matters related to foreign policy [and] national security.”

Who is Marco Rubio?

Mr Morris describes Senator Rubio as “one of … if not the most hawkish senator on China in the Senate”.

On the senator’s website, the first thing on his list of priorities is “winning the 21st century”, saying “no issue is more important to America’s future than the outcome of the ongoing conflict with the Chinese Communist Party”.

Born in Miami to Cuban immigrants, Senator Rubio states he was drawn to public service because of the experience of his grandfather, “who saw his homeland destroyed by communism”.

The 53-year-old has a long history of advocacy on issues relating to China, including human rights violations and support for Taiwan.

In August 2020, Senator Rubio was sanctioned by the Chinese Communist Party for “behaving badly on Hong Kong-related issues” after the US sanctioned the city’s then chief executive Carrie Lam and 10 other Chinese and Hong Kong officials over crackdowns on political freedoms.

A month earlier, Beijing had banned the senator after the US sanctioned several Chinese leaders which it says are responsible for human rights abuses against Uyghurs in Xinjiang.

The banning of Senator Rubio at the time would have been largely symbolic, but now may end up being quite the issue for the relationship.

Only in September, he along with Democrat Jeff Merkley from Oregon, proposed the No Funds for Forced Labor Act, which seeks to limit loans from American banks for projects at risk of using forced labour.

Senator Rubio specifically identified China’s treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang as the main target of the bill.

“The Chinese Communist Party continues with its grotesque campaign of genocide against Uyghurs and other minorities,” he said in a statement.

“As the author of the first piece of legislation on Uyghur human rights in the world, I remain committed to ensuring we do more to counter this modern-day slavery practice.”

The senator is one of the most traditional China hawks in the Republican Party, according to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s head of China investigations and analysis Bethany Allen.

“What’s most notable about him is that he has been a China hawk for a long, long time, and he’s really put in an enormous amount of effort to learn about China,” she says.

“Now we see politicians kind of jumping on board that anti-China train to make their careers on that, but he has demonstrated a career-long interest in it, and he has a deep knowledge of the Chinese government and Chinese system as well.

“He has not, to this point, really allowed the winds of what is fashionable in US politics or foreign policy, to sway him all that much on China.”

Ms Allen says his appointment would indicate a likely commitment to the current bipartisan support of a tough on China policy.

“Under Marco Rubio as secretary of state, the US is not likely to seek some kind of a détente with China and is not likely to abandon traditional US commitments to Taiwan,” she says.

Who is Michael Waltz?

Congressman Waltz’s resume features several distinguished defence and security roles.

He was in the military and reserves for 27 years including tours to Afghanistan and the Middle East, is a former Green Beret, and served in the Pentagon and the White House under secretaries of defense Donald Rumsfeld and Robert Gates.

His wife Julia Nesheiwat, who is also a veteran, served as a homeland security advisor to Trump during his first term.

He too has been outspoken about China, calling Beijing’s treatment of Uyghurs “genocide in every sense of the definition,” comparing the CCP through its Belt and Road Initiative to a payday lender taking advantage of impoverished countries, and has publicly stated the US is in a Cold War with China.

He is a member of the House China Task Force, and has sponsored bills aimed at reducing America’s dependence on Chinese critical minerals — an issue of increasing importance to both the Chinese and US governments.

He also lists championing Florida’s space industry among his achievements and has advocated for deterring China’s celestial ambitions.

“This appointment suggests [Trump] is going to be more hawkish, or take a harder line on China,” Mr Morris says.

“At least on paper, [Mr Waltz] is going to be very hard-nosed on China, he’s going to have a realpolitik approach towards China.

“If indeed, Rubio is [also] the secretary of state, I think it’s going to be a very uniform hawkish policy on China.”

Will Trump follow their advice?

No one really knows.

Mr Rubio ran against Trump in the 2016 Republican primaries, but recent events suggest any acrimony has been put behind them.

The senator campaigned for the president-elect in the lead up to last week’s election.

However, if Trump’s last term is anything to go by, appointments are hardly concrete under his watch.

The man famous for firing people on the reality show, The Apprentice continued that trend in office.

His first term was littered with sackings and resignations, including the sudden firing of his first secretary of state Rex Tillerson via social media in 2018.

“What we also saw in the first Trump term was enormous turnover at the top levels of the administration and lots of factional infighting, especially in the first year or two, especially on China policy,” Ms Allen says.

“I would suggest that with these appointments that are very traditional, very kind of standard Republican, we may be seeing the administration setting itself up for some factional infighting.”

And even if Trump does take on the counsel of Mr Waltz and Senator Rubio, it may all go out the window once he’s in the room with Xi Jinping.

“Trump is a personality driven leader,” Mr Morris says.

“He likes to build relationships with authoritarian leaders, and one could imagine him having a direction on China up until he meets with Xi.

“And then they have some sort of bargain, or some sort of agreement between Trump and Xi, which could then change the course of the US-China policy.”

What does Beijing think?

Again, it’s hard to know what Mr Xi really thinks about Trump’s election.

But the evidence suggests these appointments would not be welcomed by the Chinese leadership.

“It is very hard for me to imagine that Beijing is feeling good about these appointments,” Ms Allen says.

“These are some of the most hawkish on China and most consistent and most prominent Republicans.

“Marco Rubio has been sanctioned by China, so I can’t imagine that Xi Jinping is taking this as anything other than a continuation of very tough on China policies by the US.”

When asked about the reported appointments during the daily Foreign Affairs press briefing in Beijing, ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said the government had no comment on the selection of officials in America, and that Chinese policy on the US hadn’t changed.

The spokesman said he had no information about whether Beijing would lift the sanctions and travel ban on Senator Rubio.

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