Israel-Hamas ceasefire in peril as first phase nears end
Palestinian militant group Hamas says it has rejected an Israeli proposal to extend phase one of the ceasefire deal in Gaza, throwing the Middle East peace process into uncertainty just hours before the first stage of the agreement is set to expire.
The group is instead looking to pressure Israel into proceeding to phase two of the deal, which would secure a permanent ceasefire. However, Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem told Al-Araby TV there were no talks for a second phase currently underway.
An Israeli delegation to Cairo, where peace talks have been taking place, returned from Egypt on Friday without securing an agreement to extend the first ceasefire phase, Israeli officials said.
However, mediators from the Egyptian and Qatari governments said discussions were still being had between the parties on Saturday to resolve the impasse, even if there was little sign of consensus.
The first phase of the ceasefire deal took effect on January 19 after more than 15 months of war sparked by Hamas’s October 7, 2023 terror attack on Israel, the deadliest in the country’s history.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty (right) with Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Mustafa in Cairo. (AP Photo: Amr Nabil)
Over the initial six weeks of the agreement, Palestinian militants freed 25 living hostages and returned the bodies of eight others to Israel, in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and detainees held in Israeli jails.
The agreement also enabled greater aid flows into the Gaza Strip, where more than 69 per cent of buildings have been damaged or destroyed over the past 15 months, and almost the entire population has been displaced.
A second phase of the fragile truce would pave the way for a more permanent end to the fighting by securing the release of the remaining dozens of hostages still being held in Gaza, in exchange for the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Friday that the ceasefire itself “must hold”, regardless of the status of negotiations on how to move forward.
“The coming days are critical. The parties must spare no effort to avoid a breakdown of this deal,” Mr Guterres said in New York.
‘Nothing but God’s mercy’
In Gaza and throughout much of the Muslim world, Saturday also marked the first day of the month of Ramadan, during which the faithful observe a dawn-to-dusk fast.
Among the rubble of Gaza’s war-wrecked neighbourhoods, traditional Ramadan lanterns hung and people performed nightly prayers on the eve of the holy month.
“Ramadan has come this year, and we are on the streets with no shelter, no work, no money, nothing,” said Ali Rajih, a resident of the hard-hit Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza.
“My eight children and I are homeless, we’re living on the streets of Jabalia camp, with nothing but God’s mercy.”
Almost the entire population of Gaza was displaced over the past 15 months. (Middle East Images via AFP: Hamed Sbeata)
Hamas’s October 7 terror attack on Israel resulted in the deaths of 1,218 people, mostly civilians, according to a tally of official figures conducted by news agency AFP.
The Israeli retaliation has killed more than 48,000 in Gaza, a majority of them civilians, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory — figures the UN has deemed reliable.
Though the truce has effectively held, there have been a number of Israeli strikes on the territory, including on Friday when the military said it targeted two “suspects” approaching troops in southern Gaza.
A hospital in Khan Younis said it had received the body of one person killed in a strike.
An Israeli tank conducts manoeuvres on the border with Gaza last month. (Reuters: Amir Cohen)
‘Nobody really knows, but we’ll see what happens’
Analysts are being cautious not to predict what might happen if the ceasefire deal expires without an agreement, which is currently on track to happen at 9am AEDT on Sunday.
Max Rodenbeck, of the International Crisis Group think tank, said it was unrealistic to hope for the second phase of the deal to start immediately.
“But I think the ceasefire probably won’t collapse also,” he said.
Some Arab media, however, are warning there could potentially be an increase in military activity, as neither side will have any official obligation to adhere to a ceasefire.
The US State Department on Friday approved the sale of nearly $US3 billion ($4.8 billion) in bombs, demolition kits and other weaponry to Israel, according to the Pentagon.
Asked on Thursday whether the deal was likely to move into the second phase, US President Donald Trump simply said: “Nobody really knows, but we’ll see what happens”.
Discussions on an end to the war are complicated by the lack of any agreement over basic questions such as how Gaza would be governed, how its security would be managed, how it could be rebuilt, and who would pay for the reconstruction.
Mr Trump proposed last month that the United States should take over Gaza and redevelop it as a “Riviera of the Middle East”, with its population being displaced into Egypt and Jordan.
Arab countries including Egypt and Jordan have rejected that idea outright.
European countries have also rejected the displacement of Palestinians and say they still support a two-state solution to the conflict, which is also the position of the Australian government.
ABC/Wires
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