Ex-tropical cyclone Alfred LIVE updates: Storm set to make landfall momentarily, heavy rainfall forecast for Brisbane, Gold Coast; NSW Northern Rivers flood risk elevated

There is a flood watch for Brisbane, but not yet a flood warning because of the high uncertainty about whether the rain will fall north, south or in the middle of the city.

Senior meteorologist Christie Johnson, from the Bureau of Meteorology, said there had only been 11 millimetres of rain in Brisbane since 9am today, but there could be 100-200 millimetres around the city and suburbs overnight and tomorrow.

“It will depend exactly on the track of Alfred, and it has been quite wobbly,” Johnson said. “If it went further northwards or further southwards, it could affect where that heaviest rainfall falls.”

She said the other source of uncertainty was the potential for thunderstorms to develop around this system, either today or tomorrow.

Forecast rainfall could also result in minor Brisbane River flooding between Lowood and Mount Crosby from late Sunday.

Senior meteorologist Christie Johnson, from the Bureau of Meteorology, said the heaviest rainfalls today were “actually falling over the ocean”, but this would change as the storm moved inland.

On land, the highest rainfalls since 9am were over Queensland, especially the Gold Coast and hinterland.

“Most of the rainfall has been north of the border and that’s because Alfred moved a little bit further north … to Bribie Island,” she said.

There had been about 60 millimetres of rain in the Springbrook area, about 50 millimetres at Mount Glorious inland from Brisbane and about 40 millimetres in the Moreton Islands.

The heaviest rainfall in NSW today was between Grafton and Dorrigo – more Mid North Coast than Northern Rivers, though Mullumbimby had about 40 millimetres since 9am.

An isolated weather station at Lowanna in the Coffs hinterland recorded 100 millimetres, but had not yet been quality-controlled, Johnson said.

Grafton had about 50 millimetres since 9am, while just south of Grafton had 60-70 millimetres. Dorrigo had another 50 millimetres, which Johnson said came on top of 750 millimetres over the past few days.

Bellingen lies downstream from Dorrigo and the Bellinger River is prone to flooding. Some Bellingen residents on social media described today’s rain as “typical March weather” and suggested a beat-up.

However, Johnson said the tropical low was a significant weather event and tomorrow could actually be the wettest day in Bellingen and many other places, with the rainfall and flood risk continuing into early next week.

“It is only just starting really from a flooding perspective because … for many places [Sunday] is going to be the wettest day, or maybe even into the start of next week,” she said.

“A lot of people might be thinking ‘oh there’s not too much rain yet’, but the rivers are swollen, the catchments are wet, the ground is wet, and we’re expecting significant rainfall over the next 48 hours or so, so significant flood impacts are still to come and very, very likely.”

Queensland Premier David Crisafulli is providing an update on the situation with ex-tropical cyclone Alfred.

You can watch it here.

Thick snow-like sea foam is dusting the streets of the Gold Coast.

Large crowds gathered at Main Beach this afternoon as heavy winds carried the salty, sandy substance into the sky.

“We’ve never seen it before, but it’s strange,” one onlooker said.

The footpath in front of the beach was severely undermined by erosion, and council workers were turning people away from about 3pm Queensland time. Police were also on the scene.

Our reporter William Davis is on the Gold Coast, where ex-tropical cyclone Alfred’s wrath continues to be felt.

He says while Brisbane has been spared the worst of Alfred, the wind – which is deafening – continues to batter the Gold Coast.

“We are Queenslanders; we’re the people that they breed tough north of the border. We’re the ones that they knock down and we get up again.”

That rallying cry echoed throughout the country in 2011 when then-premier Anna Bligh was confronted with catastrophic flooding that saw Brisbane go under water for the first time since 1974.

Fourteen years on, Bligh’s words still rang true as Queenslanders stood firm in the face of Cyclone Alfred – the first expected to cross the south-east coast in more than 50 years.

The threat of Alfred was met with calmness and good humour – the “blow at Cyclone Alfred to push it back” group on Facebook amassed more than 116,000 people in less than a week as the storm approached.

You can read more about how Queenslanders have been dealing with Alfred here.

Our science reporter Angus Dalton is in Lismore for us.

Authorities there are now saying the Wilsons River levee bank should hold – at least for today.

Here is Angus’ latest report.