Rebellious states are working to make things tough for Trump

It was Trump at his political ascendancy. The culmination of an extraordinary political comeback. 

Inside the US Capitol rotunda, the returning president used his swearing-in ceremony to promise the beginning of a “golden age” of American politics. He proclaimed that he believed God had saved him from an assassin’s bullet to “make America great again”.

Behind him sat his vanquished political foes.

Outgoing president Joe Biden, who’d beaten Trump back in 2020 but saw his political career come to a shuddering halt during a disastrous campaign debate performance, watched on as Trump excoriated his administration.

Next to Biden sat his vice-president, a stony-faced Kamala Harris, the woman who’d taken up the Democratic mantle and then lost both the electoral college and the popular vote to Trump.

Their only visible protest was to stay seated while the crowd kept leaping to their feet to applaud, as Trump promised to rip apart their legacy and arrest the “decline” he claimed they’d overseen.

Yes, a display of outright antagonism would have been disrespectful and churlish, but their lack of pushback could also be taken as a vivid example of how impotent Democrats in Washington now are in the struggle against Trump.

In addition to returning Trump to the White House, the American people also gave Republicans control of both chambers of Congress, making resistance within the Capitol in the short term difficult.

With Biden and Harris departing Washington, it’s also unclear who the new leader of the Democratic Party is.

Unlike in Australia, there’s no official opposition leader in the US system. But the mantle is often taken up by opposition party’s leader in either the House or Senate when they are in the majority. For example, Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich during the Clinton administration or Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi during the previous Trump term.

With the Democrats in the minority in both chambers, it’s likely the resistance will be outside the nation’s capital.

Democratic states lead the charge

The vexed issue of immigration reform is shaping up as the first major political battle of this Trump term.

Trump campaigned hard on the southern border crisis and railed against the number of “illegal” immigrants, promising the largest mass deportation program in America’s history.

Among Trump’s first executive orders was an attempt to remove “birthright citizenship”.

Under the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, anyone born in the US is a citizen, unless their parents are foreign diplomats. Trump is attempting to unilaterally change that so the children of undocumented migrants or those on temporary visas aren’t granted citizenship.

Almost immediately, the attorneys-general of 22 Democratic-led states sued to stop Trump’s order.

The unofficial Trump opposition had entered the fight.

It’s not just court action. Multiple state leaders have taken practical steps to stifle Trump’s planned deportations.

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Trump’s new “border czar”, Tom Homan, says Chicago, Illinois, will be ground zero for the operation, but the state has responded defiantly.

While it’s clear that the federal government does have exclusive power over immigration, it usually relies on help from local officials to enforce it.

Under Democratic governor JB Pritzker, Illinois has taken measures to protect undocumented migrants from the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents that are said to be coming for them. 

The state government has told school principals not to let ICE agents onto campuses without a warrant, while Illinois’s state-based officers are banned from engaging in immigration enforcement.

Pritzker, who is seen as a potential 2028 presidential candidate, says his state won’t stand “idly by”.

Trump’s Justice Department has made it clear it’s not backing down, though. It says it will prosecute state and local officials who don’t cooperate with the president’s deportation plans.

This is heading toward an ugly confrontation between opposing pillars of government.

While you might think the national government would win any such battle with one of its component parts, it’s not that simple.

In the US federal system, individual states have broad and important powers. They have their own law enforcement and justice systems, as well as their own revenue and tax bases. They’re distinct and potent political entities of their own.

For example, if the US’s largest state, California, were its own country, it would have the fifth-largest economy in the world — just after Japan and ahead of India.

They have vast resources at their disposal, and it’s clear that they’re now willing to deploy them to take on Trump.

We’ve seen this playbook before

There are echoes now of what occurred in Trump’s first term.

In 2017, like now, the Republicans had won both chambers of Congress, which made it difficult for Democrats in the Capitol to take the fight up to Trump. Into the breach stepped the states to both challenge federal government policies and actions in court, and take their own counteractions.

There are also major differences between now and 2017, though.

On one hand, the Democratic resistance had more time to prepare for Trump’s victory this time around.

While Trump’s first victory came as a surprise to most, this time the polls were suggesting a tight race for a long period.

But Trump’s decisions might also be harder to challenge this time. Trump 1.0 was sometimes sloppy in how it drafted orders, which meant they were easier to challenge. This iteration of Trump is a far more experienced political operator, and he has assembled a team of loyalists who are focused on pushing forward his agenda.

Trump is also showing even greater willingness to deploy all the powers at his disposal to punish his political enemies and reward loyalty.

Those who stormed the US Capitol back on January 6, 2021, to try to disrupt the certification of an election he lost, he freed from jail.

His former national security adviser, John Bolton, who became one of his fiercest critics, had his secret service detail removed despite a previous assessment that Iran was trying to kill him.

Jostling to lead the resistance

Standing up to Trump takes intestinal fortitude but there are multiple candidates vying to be the president’s primary antagonist.

A few months ago, California Governor Gavin Newsom seemed the front-runner for the role of figurehead of the anti-Trump forces.

After Trump won the election but before he took power, Newsom (or “Newscum”, as Trump has derisively nicknamed him) called a special legislative session to “Trump-proof” the state.

In addition to immigration action, he moved on environmental controls as Trump promised to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord, and protecting minorities as Trump promised to wind back diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies.

But Newsom’s standing has fallen this year, with heavy criticism about the lead-up and response to Los Angeles’s devastating wildfires. We wait to see if he can recover in time to potentially also run for president in 2028.

Historical precedence would suggest the Republicans will likely lose at least one chamber of Congress at the midterm elections, due in November 2026. This leaves Trump with less than two years to try to push through as much of his agenda as possible and cement his legacy.

The Democrats will be doing all they can to stifle his momentum. And they will be relying on the largest and bluest states to throw up all the obstacles and challenges they can manage.

While the national Democratic luminaries felt compelled to sit in respectful silence during inauguration, even as Trump promised to destroy all they believe in, you can expect the next generation of leaders will be competing to be the loudest voice opposing him over the next two years.

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