The triple threats facing Germany’s incoming leader

Not only that, but key members of Trump’s administration – Vice President J.D. Vance and tech billionaire Elon Musk – were openly barracking for Merz’s far-right rivals, the Alternative for Germany, known as the AfD.

A left-wing coalition government was turfed out, abandoned by the working-class voters it betrayed, while a party linked to neo-Nazis on its fringes won the support of one in five German voters, doubling its share of the vote in 2021, to around 20 per cent, and giving the far-right its highest-ever return (about 150 seats) in a national election since World War II.

A record 83.5 per cent of voters – the highest turnout since unification in 1990 – went to the polls as Germany grapples with the effects of shrinking economic activity for two straight years. Each party had pledged to drive an economic recovery while offering starkly different remedies.

Immigration also featured prominently in election campaigns after a string of fatal attacks by migrants. The AfD, which takes a hard line on immigration, was buoyed by growing international support, including from Musk.

The issue dominated in the old East Germany, with the old Iron Curtain now a barrier against what was described as a “blue tide”, winning support from former voters of the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), libertarian Free Democratic Party and even the union moment.

Twenty-one per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds flirted with the far-right along with 37 per cent of blue-collar workers and 33 per cent of the unemployed. Winning them back will be crucial to uniting the country.

It will be tough, as many argue national populism is not only here to stay but reflects an ongoing realignment of Western politics, which is pushing rising numbers of voters away from the established liberal consensus into the arms of parties that are mainly critical of mass uncontrolled immigration and globalisation.

But, crucially, 80 per cent of Germans rejected them. To form a government, a majority of at least 316 of the 630 seats in the Bundestag is needed.

While a coalition between Merz’s CDU and AfD would pass this threshold, adding up to 358, Merz says aligning with a party that “stands against everything that our country and our party built in the last years and decades” is out of the question.

It means the SPD, having just been thrown out of government after just one term, will likely join with CDU again, as it did with Angela Merkel, in a so-called “Grand Coalition”.

Given the sense of crisis pervading Europe, finding common ground could scarcely come at a more pivotal time.

Although long-standing issues with the country’s migration and asylum policies were prominent in the campaign, Merz has made it clear the gravest concern is defence.

American unreliability points to an urgent need for more European self-reliance and Germany will have to assume the responsibilities incumbent upon it as the European Union’s largest economic power.

Outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz was slow to accept the new reality, hoping a transatlantic alliance would endure despite clear early signals from Trump that he would halt military aid for Ukraine, question the US commitment to defend Europe, and bolster far-right, Kremlin-friendly forces.

If the US abandons Europe and Ukraine to face Russia alone, Merz has made it clear he will resist any temptation to cut a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

How he responds to the challenge could push the country onto a more prosperous and secure path, or perpetuate its drift. Germany, all of Europe and the West need the former to prevail.

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